The same way free will is an illusion, I believe probability is also an illusion.
If a die is thrown, and an outside observer had access to all data the moment the die left the hand (air pressure, position of every molecule on the die and the table, etc.) and this observer had a computer with enough processing power, he could predict with 100% accuracy which number will land on top.
And because free will is an illusion, this observer could even predict the thrown number before the die left the hand. Even before the thrower 'decided' that it would be a neat idea to throw a die today. IF the observer had all the nessesary information at the time of prediction, which now includes the state of the throwers neurons.
Because such observation is impossible for us humans (we cannot have all this information and we don't have the processing-capacity to simulate the situation in enough detail), we created the concept of probability. A way to predict, with as much accuracy as possible, the outcome of a situation.
To quote Albert Einstein: "I, at any rate, am convinced that He [God] does not throw dice."
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The strength of a civilization is not measured by its ability
to wage wars, but rather by its ability to prevent them. - Gene Roddenberry
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